As soon as I thought of the name for this blog, I thought I might be on to a good thing. The
George Box quote from which it is taken is one I repeat in my public talks and university lectures, to make the points that:
(a) climate* scientists do not believe their models can exactly reproduce the real world; and
(b) climate models are imperfect, but they can still be useful tools to understand the planet.
* I say ‘climate’ because it is more recognisable, but I mean ‘earth
system’: the whole or any individual part of the planet. For example, I
currently work with glaciologists modelling the ice sheets of Greenland
and Antarctica.
Not everyone agreed with my assessment when I asked for opinions on
Twitter. I was surprised that a senior academic tried to persuade me, fairly forcefully, not to use the name.
I’ve put most of the conversation here (
emphasis mine).
It highlights two schools of thinking on how best to communicate
climate science and partly reflects, I think, the difference between the
relatively calm conversations of the UK and the polarised, antagonistic
debates more common in the USA. The scientists over there are attacked
and are therefore (understandably) defensive. Over we are prodded, or
huffed at, in the British way, and it is easier to respond candidly.
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